Climate-Induced Societal Collapse

Rising greenhouse gas emissions have locked in 2.5–3°C warming by 2100, unleashing cascading tipping points: permafrost thaw releases methane, Amazon dieback turns a carbon sink into a source, and ice sheet melt accelerates sea-level rise. Food and water insecurity from simultaneous crop failures across multiple breadbaskets trigger mass migrations, resource wars, and the unravelling of global supply chains. The breakdown of nation-states, combined with proliferating extremist ideologies and pandemics spawned from thawing pathogens, overwhelms any adaptive capacity. This convergent systemic failure represents the most probable trajectory toward civilizational collapse, as it amplifies all other risks—conflict, economic depression, and biological threats—until a coherent global society can no longer function.