Nuclear War Escalation

Among current existential risks, nuclear war remains the most probable path to global collapse because it can occur suddenly through miscalculation, escalation, or accident. Regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed states, the erosion of arms-control agreements, and rising great-power tensions increase the chance that a crisis crosses the nuclear threshold.

Even a limited nuclear exchange could ignite firestorms, inject soot into the upper atmosphere, and trigger nuclear winter. The resulting collapse of agriculture, supply chains, energy systems, and governance would likely end modern civilization and could threaten humanity’s long-term survival.