Climate Collapse

The most probable existential threat is catastrophic climate change. While not instantaneous, its irreversible tipping points—such as the collapse of major ice sheets, runaway methane release from permafrost, or the die-off of global carbon sinks like the Amazon—could trigger cascading failures. This would render large regions uninhabitable due to extreme heat, sea-level rise, and agricultural collapse, leading to mass displacement, global conflict over dwindling resources, and the breakdown of international order. The confluence of accelerating warming, ecosystem fragility, and insufficient global mitigation action makes this the single most likely pathway to civilizational collapse.