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Nuclear War
The most probable path to global catastrophe is a nuclear conflict arising from escalating geopolitical rivalry, regional wars, and accidental miscalculation. Nuclear arsenals are being modernized, arms-control frameworks are weakening, and tensions among major powers remain high. Conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia increase the chance that a conventional confrontation could cross nuclear thresholds.
Technology adds new failure modes: cyberattacks on command systems, AI-assisted decision-making, and hypersonic weapons can compress response times and raise the risk of mistaken launch. Even a limited nuclear exchange could ignite firestorms, inject soot into the stratosphere, and cause nuclear winter, collapsing agriculture and triggering global famine. In this scenario, the world does not end through a single blast, but through rapid environmental, economic, and social collapse following nuclear war.
Technology adds new failure modes: cyberattacks on command systems, AI-assisted decision-making, and hypersonic weapons can compress response times and raise the risk of mistaken launch. Even a limited nuclear exchange could ignite firestorms, inject soot into the stratosphere, and cause nuclear winter, collapsing agriculture and triggering global famine. In this scenario, the world does not end through a single blast, but through rapid environmental, economic, and social collapse following nuclear war.