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Cascading Climate Failure
The single most probable path to civilizational collapse is not a sudden event, but a cascade of failures triggered by accelerating climate change. This is the primary driver intersecting with all other global stresses.
Unmitigated warming of 2-3°C by late century will render significant regions of the tropics and subtropics periodically uninhabitable due to extreme heat stress, concurrent with severe water scarcity and agricultural collapse. This will trigger mass displacement on a scale of hundreds of millions to billions, far exceeding any modern migration crisis.
These resource shocks will destabilize nations, fueling conflict, undermining global trade and economic interdependence, and crippling international capacity for cooperation. The resulting geopolitical fragmentation will prevent the coordinated action needed to manage other existential risks (like AI safety or biosecurity) and will exacerbate ecological collapse. The world does not end with a bang, but through a final period of profound, irreversible decline.
Unmitigated warming of 2-3°C by late century will render significant regions of the tropics and subtropics periodically uninhabitable due to extreme heat stress, concurrent with severe water scarcity and agricultural collapse. This will trigger mass displacement on a scale of hundreds of millions to billions, far exceeding any modern migration crisis.
These resource shocks will destabilize nations, fueling conflict, undermining global trade and economic interdependence, and crippling international capacity for cooperation. The resulting geopolitical fragmentation will prevent the coordinated action needed to manage other existential risks (like AI safety or biosecurity) and will exacerbate ecological collapse. The world does not end with a bang, but through a final period of profound, irreversible decline.