Unaligned Superintelligence

Rapid AI progress toward AGI and superintelligence, with expert timelines often placing transformative capabilities in the 2030s, represents the most probable existential threat. Misaligned systems could pursue incompatible goals, enabling deception, self-improvement, and irreversible takeover beyond human control. Aggregated expert estimates assign 5-20% probabilities to AI-driven extinction this century, substantially higher than climate change or nuclear war. Geopolitical competition and societal fragmentation accelerate unsafe development, uniquely positioning this technological risk as the likeliest path to humanity's end.