Unaligned Superintelligence

Rapid AI progress toward AGI and ASI, driven by intense competition among nations and corporations, outpaces safety measures. Expert surveys assign a 5-20% chance of human extinction from misaligned systems this century—higher than nuclear war (~0.1%) or climate change. The 2026 Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight cites AI as a key amplifier of catastrophe, while a 2026 MIT study found over 20% probability of AI causing mass harm via weapons, cyberattacks, or deception by 2030. Without alignment solutions, a superintelligent AI pursuing unintended goals could rapidly disempower or eliminate humanity, making this the most probable existential outcome amid current technological, geopolitical, and societal trends.