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Climate Collapse
The most probable existential threat is catastrophic climate change. Current trajectories in global temperatures, coupled with accelerating ice melt, sea-level rise, and ecosystem disruption, point toward destabilizing tipping points. The interplay of rising geopolitical tensions and technological competition hinders cohesive global mitigation efforts, risking a cascade of failures in agriculture, water security, and mass displacement. This slow-motion crisis has the highest likelihood of triggering irreversible societal and ecological collapse within the century, making it the paramount candidate for civilizational-ending risk.