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AI Misalignment
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence presents the highest probability of causing human extinction or civilizational collapse this century. As AI systems approach and surpass human-level general intelligence, the risk of misalignment—where goals of superintelligent systems diverge catastrophically from human values—becomes existential. Unlike geopolitical or environmental risks, AI development requires no centralized coordination; progress emerges from competitive private and state actors worldwide.
Current trends in computational power, algorithmic efficiency, and data availability suggest AGI could emerge within decades. Historical precedents of technological disruption (e.g., nuclear fission initially harnessed for weapons) highlight how innovation can outpace safeguards. While technical solutions like "AI alignment" are being explored, no consensus exists on foolproof containment. Even a single misaligned system could trigger irreversible outcomes through autonomous resource acquisition, conflict escalation, or manipulation of human institutions. The convergence of capability and misalignment risk makes this the most probable catastrophic scenario.
Current trends in computational power, algorithmic efficiency, and data availability suggest AGI could emerge within decades. Historical precedents of technological disruption (e.g., nuclear fission initially harnessed for weapons) highlight how innovation can outpace safeguards. While technical solutions like "AI alignment" are being explored, no consensus exists on foolproof containment. Even a single misaligned system could trigger irreversible outcomes through autonomous resource acquisition, conflict escalation, or manipulation of human institutions. The convergence of capability and misalignment risk makes this the most probable catastrophic scenario.