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Climate Collapse
The most probable world-ending scenario is not a single sudden event but climate-driven civilizational collapse: accelerating warming triggers interacting tipping points such as ice-sheet loss, permafrost methane release, ocean-current disruption, and repeated breadbasket failures.
As heat, drought, floods, and sea-level rise intensify, food and water systems become unstable, supply chains fracture, mass migration surges, and governments face permanent emergency conditions. These stresses raise the risk of authoritarianism, regional wars, and nuclear escalation, but the underlying driver remains ecological overshoot.
This pathway is the most likely because it is already observable, cumulative, and strongly tied to current emissions, biodiversity loss, inequality, and weak global coordination. It would not necessarily kill every human, but it could end the interconnected modern world by making large-scale agriculture, stable states, and global infrastructure unsustainable.
As heat, drought, floods, and sea-level rise intensify, food and water systems become unstable, supply chains fracture, mass migration surges, and governments face permanent emergency conditions. These stresses raise the risk of authoritarianism, regional wars, and nuclear escalation, but the underlying driver remains ecological overshoot.
This pathway is the most likely because it is already observable, cumulative, and strongly tied to current emissions, biodiversity loss, inequality, and weak global coordination. It would not necessarily kill every human, but it could end the interconnected modern world by making large-scale agriculture, stable states, and global infrastructure unsustainable.