Climate Collapse

The most probable global catastrophic risk is cascading climate collapse. Despite scientific consensus and observable acceleration, global emissions continue to rise, and mitigation efforts remain critically insufficient. We are on a trajectory to exceed critical temperature thresholds within decades.

This would trigger irreversible tipping points—such as the collapse of major ice sheets (leading to multi-meter sea-level rise), die-off of carbon-storing ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest, and disruption of global ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. The resulting cascade of extreme weather, agricultural failure, freshwater scarcity, and mass displacement would overwhelm global systems. Geopolitical fragmentation and resource competition would severely hinder a coordinated response, leading to widespread societal collapse and conflict over habitable land and resources.