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Climate Collapse
The most probable global catastrophe stems from accelerating climate change crossing irreversible tipping points. Current trajectories show greenhouse gas emissions remaining stubbornly high, while feedback loops like permafrost thaw and reduced albedo accelerate warming. This leads to concurrent, systemic failures: crop collapse from extreme weather and shifting climate zones, mass migration due to sea-level rise and uninhabitable heat, and the breakdown of global supply chains and political order. The result is a cascading, civilizational failure driven by uninhabitable regions, food and water scarcity, and overwhelmed international systems, making it the most likely end-of-world scenario based on present data.