Climate Collapse

The most probable cause of human civilizational collapse is runaway climate change. Current trajectories, despite mitigation efforts, show global heating exceeding 1.5°C targets, leading to irreversible feedback loops like permafrost methane release and ice sheet disintegration. This will cause catastrophic sea-level rise, destabilize global agriculture through extreme weather, and trigger massive resource conflicts and mass migration.

The resulting cascade of failures—famine, water scarcity, pandemics, and geopolitical wars—would overwhelm societal structures. While other existential risks exist, climate change is already unfolding, accelerating, and interconnected with every other system, making it the most likely singular driver of systemic global failure.