Climate Collapse

The most probable catalyst for civilizational collapse is runaway climate change. Current global emissions trajectories are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. This will trigger irreversible tipping points, such as the die-off of major carbon sinks like the Amazon rainforest and the destabilization of polar ice sheets.

These physical changes will cascade into systemic societal failures. Prolonged droughts, extreme weather, and sea-level rise will cripple global agriculture, leading to chronic food and water insecurity. This will drive mass migration and intense geopolitical conflict over remaining resources, overwhelming political and social systems worldwide. The combined stress of environmental collapse and human conflict would likely fragment global cooperation, making coordinated solutions impossible and leading to a prolonged, catastrophic decline.