Nuclear War

The most probable existential threat stems from escalating geopolitical tensions among nuclear-armed states. Current global instability, characterized by eroding arms control agreements, regional conflicts involving major powers, and advancing nuclear and hypersonic technologies, increases the risk of miscalculation or deliberate escalation. A large-scale nuclear exchange would trigger immediate catastrophic destruction followed by a global nuclear winter, collapsing agricultural systems and civilization. While other threats like climate change or AI pose long-term risks, the existing and volatile nuclear arsenals make this the most direct and plausible path to rapid global catastrophe.