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Climate Catastrophe
By 2026, accelerating climate change emerges as the most likely existential threat, driven by unchecked greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and biodiversity loss. Global temperatures have risen beyond 1.5°C, triggering irreversible tipping points like melting permafrost releasing methane and collapsing ice sheets causing sea-level rise.
This leads to widespread societal collapse through extreme weather events, food and water shortages, and mass migrations. Conflicts over resources escalate, but the core driver is environmental breakdown, not direct warfare. Technological and geopolitical efforts fail to mitigate it in time, resulting in a cascade of failures that render large parts of the planet uninhabitable by mid-century.
This leads to widespread societal collapse through extreme weather events, food and water shortages, and mass migrations. Conflicts over resources escalate, but the core driver is environmental breakdown, not direct warfare. Technological and geopolitical efforts fail to mitigate it in time, resulting in a cascade of failures that render large parts of the planet uninhabitable by mid-century.