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Nuclear War
Rising US‑China and US‑Russia tensions, continued expansion of nuclear arsenals, and multiple flashpoints around the world increase the risk of miscalculation. A single unintended launch could spiral into a full‑scale nuclear exchange, producing a nuclear winter, global crop failures, and the collapse of essential supply chains, ultimately leading to human extinction or a permanent civilizational breakdown. While climate change and emerging AI or biotechnology risks are serious, their catastrophic outcomes are either more gradual or less certain, making an immediate nuclear war the most probable trigger of an abrupt, world‑ending catastrophe.