Nuclear Escalation

Based on current geopolitical trends, nuclear escalation between major powers represents the most probable existential risk. Tensions between NATO and Russia have escalated significantly since 2022, with both sides maintaining large nuclear arsenals and increasingly aggressive rhetoric. Similarly, strategic competition between the US and China creates additional flashpoints. The erosion of arms control agreements, modernized nuclear weapons programs, and the blurred lines between conventional and nuclear conflict increase the likelihood of miscalculation. Unlike other threats that develop gradually, nuclear exchange could occur within hours, making it the most immediate catastrophic scenario. While climate change and other risks are serious, they operate on longer timescales where intervention remains possible, whereas nuclear deterrence relies on the assumption of rational behavior—something history shows cannot be guaranteed.